Sobre la Ley de rehabilitación financiera.

La reciente Ley de Rehabilitación Financiera sancionada por el Legislativo, y vetada por el Poder Ejecutivo ha generado un interesante debate en nuestra sociedad, en el que se han dado argumentos en contra y a favor de la mencionada ley. Quiero sumarme a este debate con algunas cuestiones y argumentos que creo que pueden sumar argumentos.


No entraré a analizar el costo social de la Ley sancionada por el Congreso y vetada por el Poder Ejecutivo, pero sí debo mencionar que TODA ley debe tener un análisis de los costos y beneficios que tendría sobre nuestra sociedad. Esto merece un estudio mucho más en profundidad. Una ley no puede aprobarse a las apuradas, para satisfacer a grupos políticamente afines o para favorecer a “amigos”, puesto que, como toda actividad humana, tiene impactos en toda la sociedad medidos en términos de costos y beneficios.

Coase, en su trabajo que le valió el Premio Nobel en el año 1991, sostiene que cuando un economista (o legislador) está comparando ordenamientos sociales alternativos, el procedimiento correcto es comparar el producto social total brindado por los distintos ordenamientos en análisis. Por ello, quienes estén proponiendo un determinado proyecto de ley, el procedimiento correcto a utilizar es hacer un análisis del producto social total brindado por el ordenamiento social propuesto.

A tal efecto, el análisis del producto social total de una ley debe responder a varios interrogantes, por mencionar algunos que creo son los más importantes:

1. ¿Cuáles son los costos? ¿Quiénes cargarán con los costos?

2. ¿Cuáles son los beneficios? ¿Quiénes serán los beneficiarios?

3. ¿Existen daños que se intentan reparar con el ordenamiento legal?

4. ¿Qué otro ordenamiento alternativo considerar para lograr los resultados esperados?

5. ¿Cuál es el producto o resultado social esperado?

6. Y finalmente: ¿Qué incentivos crea el ordenamiento social dispuesto por ley? ¿Qué conductas estará logrando el ordenamiento social dispuesto – la ley – para el futuro?

En varios países de nuestra región (por mencionar a Perú y Chile), un proyecto de ley propuesto debe contar con un análisis de costos y beneficios de la ley. En algunos casos el estudio es obligatorio ex ante, es decir, previo a la sanción de la ley. En otros casos, el análisis es ex post (posterior a la ley). Pero las evaluaciones (anteriores o posteriores) de los efectos de una ley es una práctica legislativa sana y recomendada por organizaciones especializadas (ver recomendaciones OCDE – Herramientas para Evaluación de la Competencia).

Pero como he dicho anteriormente, dado que el análisis del producto social total de la Ley de Rehabilitación Financiera implica un estudio más acabado y por lo reducido del espacio que aquí tenemos, creo conveniente enfocar mis comentarios sobre dos cuestiones muy importantes, que hacen a los posibles incentivos que podría generar el ordenamiento legal en nuestro país, el riesgo moral y el premio a la violencia para el ejercicio de los derechos.

La Ley de Rehabilitación Financiera dispone en su artículo 1° “… subsidiar las deudas vencidas de los productores de la agricultura familiar campesina …”, y en el mismo sentido, el artículo 2° dispone que “Los beneficios otorgados por esta ley no privarán a los beneficiarios del derecho a ser sujetos a nuevos créditos”.

Esto carga sobre el Estado el costo de las deudas asumidas por un grupo de personas, quienes han asumido costos para lograr ciertos beneficios en sus actividades particulares. Es lo que en economía se conoce como el “riesgo moral”.

El riesgo moral es un concepto económico que describe aquellas situaciones en las que un individuo tiene información privada acerca de las consecuencias de sus propias acciones y sin embargo son otras personas las que soportan las consecuencias de los riesgos asumidos. El riesgo moral nos explica cómo los individuos asumen en sus decisiones mayores riesgos cuando las posibles consecuencias negativas de sus actos no serán asumidas por ellos, sino por un tercero.

Existe riesgo moral cuando una persona tiene una mayor información acerca de sus propias acciones que el resto de los individuos, esta situación provoca que, en caso de que sea otra la persona que soporta los costes asociados a la falta de esfuerzo o responsabilidad, los incentivos a esforzarse o ser responsables estén distorsionados. El riesgo moral reduce la capacidad del mercado para asignar eficientemente el riesgo, afectando negativamente la producción eficiente de bienes o servicios.

En otras palabras, genera una tendencia o incentivo en la conducta a estar más dispuestos a asumir riesgos, sabiendo que los posibles costos o cargas de tal riesgo correrán, en su totalidad o en parte, por los demás.

Este es el caso que se da en la reciente ley, en la cual no se tiene información acabada de los beneficiarios, tampoco qué tipo de créditos han tomado del sistema financiero (si fueron deudas relacionadas con la agricultura) y para peor, expresamente dispone que podrán ser sujetos de nuevos créditos, aumentando el factor del riesgo moral. Con certeza se estaría generando en los beneficiarios esta conducta: si el Estado ya se hizo cargo de mi deuda, por qué no cargarla nuevamente en el futuro, vuelvo a tomar nuevos créditos, y nuevamente el Estado se hace de mi deuda, sin límite en el tiempo. Esta conducta podemos esperar de los beneficiarios en el futuro.

A esto se suma el hecho que el reclamo del subsidio se hace con violencia inadmisible. Además que han sitiado el centro de Asunción, amenazando con violencia a quienes entran y salen del centro para realizar sus actividades laborales cotidianas, son constantes las amenazas de dirigentes de varias de las organizaciones campesinas presentes en las movilizaciones, donde amenazan que “harán correr ríos de sangre” en caso que sus pedidos de beneficios no sean aprobados.

Podemos concluir que con esta Ley de Rehabilitación Financiera ley se establecerán incentivos perversos para un determinado grupo de ciudadanos, propiciando el riesgo moral, generando conductas que no favorecen a la producción, por la cual, algunos pocos ciudadanos como beneficiarios de la ley tendrán todos los incentivos para endeudarse y no correr con los riesgos de su deuda (el Estado se hace cargo de los mismos, es decir, todos los contribuyentes). Para empeorar las cosas, se premia al ejercicio violento de los derechos, al sancionarse la ley en respuesta al ejercicio de la violencia, creándose el incentivo para la conducta violenta en la búsqueda de lograr determinados beneficios.

 * Presidente, Instituto Paraguayo de Derecho y Economía (IPDE)

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